2026 Outlook for the Retail Industry: Tax and Labor Update
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2026 Outlook for the Retail Industry: Tax and Labor Update

On January 1, 2026, the 2026 Federal Revenue Law (LIF) came into effect, along with reforms to the Federal Tax Code (CFF), the Production and Services Tax Law (IEPS), the new minimum wage, and other provisions. In this context, we aim to summarize those points that we consider affecting the consumer and retail industry, as shown below:

E-commerce and digital platforms: withholdings and CFDI 

In 2026, tax obligations for digital platforms selling goods or providing services are maintained and reinforced. The main provisions in force are:

  • Income tax withholding: Pursuant to Article 113-A of the Income Tax Law, the withholding rate applicable to individuals who sell goods or provide services through digital platforms is set at 2.5% of gross income.
  • VAT withholding:
    • For legal entities registered with the RFC: a withholding of 8% of the transferred VAT is applied.
    • For individuals not registered with the RFC or who do not provide their RFC to the intermediary: the withholding is 16% of the VAT.
    • In the case of foreign residents without a permanent establishment in Mexico, 16% VAT is also withheld for digital services provided to Mexican end consumers.

Platforms are required to register with the RFC, issue digital tax receipts (CFDI) for withholding and payment information online and submit monthly returns to the SAT for taxes withheld. In addition, in the event of repeated non-compliance, the SAT may restrict operations or block digital access to its services within the country.

 

Increases to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) 

The LIEPS for 2026 suggests significant increases in the IEPS on specific products, which will directly affect consumer prices and retailers' pricing strategies:

  • Sugary drinks

The IEPS rate per liter applicable to sugary drinks doubled from $1.6451 to $3.0818 pesos, representing an increase of 87%. This tax applies to soft drinks, concentrates, syrups, and other products with added sugars. A differentiated rate of $1.50 per liter was also introduced for beverages with non-caloric sweeteners. This change directly impacts pricing and promotion strategies in the self-service and convenience sector.

  • Tobacco

The fixed tax per cigarette increased from $0.6445 to $0.8516 pesos, with a progressive annual increase that will reach $1.1584 pesos in 2030, accumulating a 79.73% increase over the original value. In addition, the ad valorem rate rose from 160% to 200%, significantly increasing the cost of industrialized tobacco products.

  • Hand-rolled tobacco

For artisanal or hand-rolled products, the ad valorem rate was raised to 32%, in line with the objective of standardizing the tax treatment of the tobacco sector as a whole.

 

Auditing of tax receipts and increase in non-compliance costs

The SAT is strengthening its powers to verify that Digital Tax Receipts via the Internet (CFDI) support actual transactions. The lack of “materiality” in expenses could result in their non-deductibility, directly impacting the tax burden on companies. The SAT may even temporarily restrict the Digital Seal Certificate (CSD), which could completely paralyze sales operations.

As for non-compliance costs, the surcharge rates applicable to the payment of tax credits for 2026 are confirmed:

  • 1.38% per month on immediate or past-due payments.
  • 1.42% per month for payments in installments of up to 12 months.
  • 1.63% per month for payments from 12 to 24 months.
  • 1.97% per month for payments in installments of more than 24 months.

These rates apply to taxpayers who enter into deferred or installment payment agreements, so the financial cost of non-compliance remains high, underscoring the importance of timeliness and compliance with tax obligations.

 

Minimum Wage Increases and Their Implications

The general minimum wage in Mexico for 2026 was set at $315.05 pesos per day, representing a 13% increase over the 2025 amount. In the Northern Border Free Zone, the new wage is $440.87 pesos per day. The retail sector, which is intensive in operational human capital, will see a direct impact on the increase in its labor costs and a potential reduction in margins. 

The challenge for the sector will be to balance the effects of the wage increase with the fiscal environment, without compromising operational sustainability or consumer experience.

 

Tax Incentives for Labor Inclusion

Tax benefits remain in place for companies that hire people with disabilities or older adults. Retail companies that implement these policies will be able to deduct an additional 25% from income tax on salaries paid to these employees. To access the incentive, a disability certificate issued by the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) is required.

 

Increase in public spending 

The 2026 Federal Expenditure Budget contemplates a total net expenditure of $10.19 trillion, representing a real increase of 5.9% over the approved budget for 2025.

From a macroeconomic perspective, higher public spending could boost domestic demand, depending on its composition and financial conditions, with possible effects on household consumption.

For the retail sector, this environment could be reflected in greater demand, particularly for basic and non-durable consumer goods, subject to the evolution of inflation, interest rates, and the pace of spending.

 

J.A. DEL RÍO offers a wide array of specialized consulting services to assist you with these and other matters, in order to ensure that your project complies with the applicable characteristics  contained in this agreement.

If you have any questions, J.A. DEL RÍO can provide you with our experts to advise in matters concerning compliance with your legal and tax obligations. Once again, please let us know if we may be of any further assistance to you at: contacto@jadelrio.com.

 

About this article

María  José González

María José González

Transfer Pricing Partner - Mexico City

Rafael Moriyama

Rafael Moriyama

M&A and Tax Consulting Director - Mexico City

Francisco Pérez

Francisco Pérez

Finance & Accounting Senior Director- Guadalajara

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